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Peer reviewed publications

Relevant peer-reviewed publications since 2010.


Chen, X., X. Zhang, J.A. Church, C.S. Watson, M.A. King, D. Monselesan, B. Legresy and C. Harig (2017), The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993-2014. Nature Climate Change 7, 492-495, doi:10.1038/nclimate3325

Feng, M., X. Zhang, B. Sloyan and M. Chamberlain (2017), Contribution of the deep ocean to the future changes of the Indonesian Throughflow. Geophys. Res. Let., doi:10.1002/2017GL072577

Lyu, K., X. Zhang, J. Church, J. Hu and J.-Y. Yu (2017), Distinguishing Basin-scale Modes of the Quasi-decadal and Multi-decadal Sea Level Variations in the Pacific. J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0004.1

Wu, Q., X. Zhang, J. Church and J. Hu (2017), Changes and variability of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific during the altimeter era. J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1002/2016JC012345


Carson, M., A. Kohl, D. Stammer, A. B. A. Slangen, C. A. Katsman, R. S. W. Van de Wal, J. Church and N. White (2016), Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century. Climatic Change, 134, 269-281, doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1520-1

McInnes, K. L., C. J. White, I. D. Haigh, M. A. Hemer, R. H. Hoeke, N. J. Holbrook, A. S. Kiern, E. C. J. Oliver, R. Ranasinghe, K. J. E. Walsh, S. Westra, R. Cox (2016), Natural hazards in Australia: sea level and coastal extremes. Climatic Change, pp1-15, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1647-8

McInnes, K.L., Hoeke, R.K., Walsh, K.J.E., O’Grady, J.G. and Hubbert, G.D. (2016), Tropical Cyclone Storm Tide Assessment for Samoa. Natural Hazards. 80: 425–444. doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1975-4

Marcos, M., Marzeion, B., Dangendorf, S., Slangen, A.B.A., Palanisamy, H., Fenoglio-Marc, L. (2016), Internal variability versus anthropogenic forcing on sea level and its components. Surv. Geophys. doi:10.1007/s10712-016-9373-3

Lyu, K., X. Zhang, J. Church and J. Hu (2016), Evaluation of the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature and sea level in the Pacific in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Int. J. Climatology. 36: 3723-3740 doi:10.1002/joc.4587

O’Kane TJ, Monselesan DP, Risbey JS. (2016), A multiscale re-examination of the Pacific South American pattern. Monthly Weather Review, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-16-0291.1

Slangen, ABA, Church, JA, Agosta, C, Fettweis, X, Marzeion, B, Richter, K (2016), Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2991

Walsh, K., White, C.J. McInnes, K. L., Holmes, J., Schuster, S., Richter, H., Evans, J. P., Di Luca, A. and Warren, R. A. (2016), Natural Hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1737-7

Wijffels, S., D. Roemmich, D. Monselesan, J. Church and J. Gilson. (2016), Ocean temperatures chronicle the ongoing warming of Earth. Nature Climate Change, 6 (2), 116-117. doi:10.1038/nclimate2924

Zhang, X., P. Oke, M. Feng, M. Chamberlain, J. Church, D. Monselesan, C. Sun, R. Matear, A. Schiller, and R. Fiedler (2016), A near-global eddy-resolving OGCM for climate studies., Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-17


Franzke, C. L. E., T. J. O'Kane, D. P. Monselesan, J. S. Risbey and I. Horenko (2015), Systematic attribution of observed Southern Hemisphere circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 513-525, doi:10.5194/npg-22-513-2015

Hoeke R.K., McInnes K.L., O’Grady J.G. (2015), Wind and wave setup contributions to extreme sea Levels at a tropical high island: A stochastic cyclone simulation study for Apia, Samoa J. Marine Science and Engineering 3:1117-1135. DOI: 10.3390/jmse3031117.

Lyu, K., X. Zhang, J. A. Church, and J. Hu (2015), Quantifying internally generated and externally forced climate signals at regional scales in CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL065508

O’Grady, J.G., McInnes, K.L., Colberg, F., Hemer, M. and Babanin, A. (2015), Longshore Wind, Waves and Storm-Tide Currents: Climate and Climate Projections at Ninety Mile Beach, South-eastern Australia. Int. J. Clim. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4268.

O'Kane, T. J., J. S. Risbey, D. P. Monselesan, I. Horenko, C. L. E. Franzke (2015), On the dynamics of persistent states and their secular trends in waveguides of southern hemisphere troposphere. Climate Dynamics, V45 doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2786-8.

Monselesan, D. P., T. J. O'Kane, J. S. Risbey and J. Church (2015), Internal climate memory in observations and models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42: 1232–1242. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062765.

Risbey, J. S., Terence J. O’Kane, Didier P. Monselesan, Christian Franzke, and Illia Horenko (2015), Metastability of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Modes. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 35–54. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0020.1.

Roemmich, D., J. Church, J. Gilson, D. Monselesan, P. Sutton and S. Wijffels (2015), Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006. Nature Climate Change, 5(3) 240-245. doi:10.1038/nclimate2513.

Slangen, A. B. A., and J. A. Church, X. Zhang and D. Monselesan (2015), The sea-level response to external forcings in historical simulations of CMIP5 climate models. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0376.1.

Watson, C., N.J. White, J.A. Church, M.A. King, R.J. Burgette and B. Legresy (2015), Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2635. see also dedicated page here.


Griffies, S. M., J. Yin, P. J. Durack, P. Goddard, S. C. Bates, E. Behrens, M. Bentsen, D. Big, A. Biastoch, C. W. Böning, A. Bozec, E. Chassignet, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, C. M. Domingues, H. Drange, R. Farneti, E. Fernandez, R. J. Greatbatch, D. M. Holland, M. Ilicak, W. G. Large, K. Lorbacher, J. Lu, S. J. Marsland, A. Mishra, A.J. G. Nurser, D. Salas y Mélia, J. B. Palter, B. L. Samuels, J. Schröter, F. U. Schwarzkopf, D. Sidorenko, A. M. Treguier, Y. Tseng, H. Tsujino, P. Uotila, S. Valcke, A. Voldoire, Q. Wang, M. Winton and X. Zhang. 2014. An assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations. Ocean Modelling. 78: 35-89. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.03.004

Han, G. and Z. Ma, H. Bao, A. Slangen (2014) Regional Differences of Relative Sea Level Changes in the Northwest Atlantic: Historical Trends and Future Projections, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119, 156-164, doi: 10.1002/2013JC009454.

Lyu, K., and X. Zhang, J.A. Church, A.B.A. Slangen and J. Hu (2014) Time of emergence for regional sea-level change. Nature Climate Change, 4, 1006-1010 doi: 10.1038/nclimate2397.

McInnes, K.L, Walsh, K.J.E., O’Grady, J.G., Hoeke, R.K., Colberg, F. and G. D. Hubbert. (2014) Quantifying Storm Tide Risk in Fiji due to Climate Variability and Change. Global and Planetary Change. 116: 115–129. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.02.004

Risbey, J. S., S. Lewandowsky, C. Langlais, D. P. Monselesan, T. J. O’Kane and N. Oreskes. (2014) Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase Nature Climate Change. 4, 835-840. doi:10.1038/nclimate2310.

Slangen, A. B. A., and J. A. Church, X. Zhang and D. Monselesan (2014) Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea-level change, Geophysical Research Letters, 41(16), 5951-5959, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061356.

Slangen, A. B. A., and R. S. W. van de Wal, Y. Wada and L. L. A. Vermeersen (2014) Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961-2003), Earth System Dynamics, 5, 243-255, doi:10.5194/esd-5-243-2014.

Slangen, A. B. A., and M. Carson, C.A. Katsman, R.S.W. van de Wal, A. Koehl, L.L.A. Vermeersen and D. Stammer (2014) Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes, Climatic Change, 124, 317-332, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9.

White, N.J., Haigh, I.D., Church, J.A., Koen, T., Watson, C.S., Pritchard, T., Watson, P.J., Burgette, R.J., McInnes, K.L., You, B., Zhang, X., and Tregoning, P. 2014: Australian Sea Levels – Trends, Regional Variability and Influencing Factors. Earth-Science Reviews. 136:155–174 doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2014.05.011

Zhang, X., J. A. Church, S. M. Platten and D. Monselesan. 2014. Projection of subtropical gyre circulation and associated sea level changes in the Pacific based on CMIP3 climate models. Climate Dynamics. 43: 131-144. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1902-x


Burgette, R.J., C.S. Watson, J.A. Church, N.J. White, P. Tregoning and R. Coleman (2013), Characterizing and minimizing the effects of noise in tide gauge time series: relative and geocentric sea level rise around Australia, Geophysical Journal International, 194, 719-726, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt131.

Church, J.A., D. Monselesan, J.M. Gregory and B. Marzeion (2013). Evaluating the ability of process based models to project sea-level change. Environmental Research Letters, 8, 014051.

Church, J. A., P. U. Clark, A. Cazenave, J. M. Gregory, S. Jevrejeva, A. Levermann, M. A. Merrifield, G. A. Milne, R. S. Nerem, P. D. Nunn, A. J. Payne, W. T. Pfeffer, D. Stammer and A. S. Unnikrishnan, 2013: Sea Level Change. Pages 1137-1216, In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. [also see dedicated section here]

Gregory, J., N. White, J. Church, M. Bierkens, J. Box, M. Van den Broeke, G. Cogley, X. Fettweis, E. Hanna, P. Huybrechts, L. Konikow, P. Leclercq, B. Marzeion, J. Oerlemans, M. Tamisiea, Y. Wada, L. Wake, and R. Van de Wal (2013), Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? Journal of Climate, 26, 4476-4499, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1.

Gregory, J.M., D.Bi, M.A.Collier, M.R.Dix, A.C.Hirst, A.Hu, M.Huber, R.Knutti, S. J.Marsland, M.Meinshausen, H.A.Rashid, L.D.Rotstayn, A. Schurer and J.A.Church (2013). Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(8): 1600-1604, doi:10.1002/grl.50339.

Hoeke, R.K., McInnes, K.L., Kruger, J., McNaught, R., Hunter, J., and Smithers, S. 2013: Widespread inundation of Pacific islands by distant-source wind-waves. 108, 128–138. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.06.006

Hunter, J.R., J.A. Church, N.J. White and X. Zhang (2013), Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise. Ocean Engineering, doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2012.12.041.

Leonard, M., Westra, S., Phatak, A., Lambert, M., van den Hurk, Bart, McInnes, K., Risbey, J., Schuster, S., Jakob, D., Stafford-Smith, M., 2013: Understanding the role of compound events in climate extremes. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews-Climate Change, 5, 113-128. doi:10.1002/wcc.252.

O’Kane, T. J.. J. S. Risbey, C. Franzke, I. Horenko and D. P. Monselesan. (2013) Changes in the Metastability of the Midlatitude Southern Hemisphere Circulation and the Utility of Nonstationary Cluster Analysis and Split-Flow Blocking Indices as Diagnostic Tools. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 824–842. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-028.1.

Otto, A., F.E.L. Otto, O. Boucher, J. Church, G. Hegerl, P.M. Forster, N.P. Gillett, J. Gregory, G.C. Johnson, R. Knutti, N. Lewis, U. Lohmann, J. Marotzke, G. Myhre, D. Shindell, B. Stevens, and M.R. Allen (2013). The recent global energy budget points to a lower range of Transient Climate Response. Nature GeoScience, 6, 415-416. doi:10.1038/ngeo1836.

Sen Gupta, A., N. C. Jourdain, J. N. Brown and D. Monselesan, 2013: Climate Drift in the CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26, 8597–8615. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1.

White, C.J., K.L. McInnes, R.P. Cechet, S.P. Corney, M.R. Grose, G.K. Holz, J.J. Katzfey and N.L. Bindoff (2013). On regional dynamical downscaling for the assessment of temperature and procipitation extremes across Tasmania, Australia. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-01301718-8.


Aucan, J., R. Hoeke and M. A. Merrifield (2012), Wave-driven sea level anomalies at the Midway tide gauge as an index of North Pacific storminess over the past 60 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L17603, doi:10.1029/2012GL052993.

Behrens, S., J. Hayward, M. Hemer and P. Osman (2012), Assessing the wave energy convertors potential for Australian coastal regions - part 1. Renewable Energy, 43, 210-217. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2011.11.031

Cavaleri, L., B. Fox-Kemper and M.Hemer (2012), Wind-waves in the coupled climate system. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00170.1

Colberg, F. and K. L. McInnes (2012), The impact of future changes in weather patterns on extreme sea levels over southern Australia, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C08001, doi:10.1029/2012JC007919.

Gleckler, P. J., B. D. Santer, C. M. Domingues, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, J. A. Church, K. E. Taylor, K. M. AchutaRao, T. P. Boyer, M. Ishii and P. M. Caldwell (2012), Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 524-529,

Hemer, M.A, K.L. McInnes and R. Ranasinghe (2012), Climate and variability bias adjustment of climate model derived winds for an east Australian dynamical wave model. Ocean Dynamics, 62, 87-104.

Hemer, M.A., X.L. Wang, R. Weisse and V.R. Swail (2012), Community advancing wind-waves climate science: The COWCLIP project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(6), 791-796. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00184.1

Hemer, M.A., J. Katzfey and C.E. Trenham (2012), Global dynamical projections of surface ocean wave climate for a future high greenhouse gas emission scenario. Ocean Modelling (Special Issue on Surface Ocean Waves). DOI:10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.09.008

Hemer, M.A., K.L. McInnes and R. Ranasinghe (2012), Exploring uncertainty in regional east Australian wave climate projections. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3537

Lorbacher, K., S.J. Marsland, J.A. Church and S.M. Griffies (2012), Rapid barotropic sea-level rise from simulated ice-sheet melting. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, C06003, 2012. doi:10.1029/2011JC007733.

Masters, D., R. S. Nerem , C. Choe , E. Leuliette , B. Beckley , N. White & M. Ablain (2012): Comparison of Global Mean Sea Level Time Series from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2, Marine Geodesy, 35:sup1, 20-41. doi:10.1080/01490419.2012.717862

Dana Nuccitelli, Robert Way, Rob Painting, John Church and John Cook (2012), Comment on Ocean heat content and Earth's radiation imbalance. II. Relation to climate shifts, Physics Letters A, 376, 3466-3468. doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2012.10.010.

Walsh, K.J.E., K.L. McInnes and J.L. McBride (2012), Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific - a regional assessment. Global and Planetary Change, 80-81, 149-164.

Whetton, P., Hennessy, K., Clarke, J., McInnes, K.L., Kent, D. 2012: Use of Representative Climate Futures in impact and adaptation assessment. Clim Change Letters 115: 433–442 (DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0471-z)

Willis, J.K. and J.A. Church (2012), Regional Sea-level Projection. Science, 336 vol. 336 no. 6081, pp. 550-551. doi:10.1126/science.1220366

Zhang, X., J. A. Church, S. M. Platten, and D. Monselesan, 2013: Projection of subtropical gyre circulation and associated sea level changes in the Pacific based on CMIP3 climate models. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1902-x.

Zhang, X. and J.A. Church (2012), Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (21), L21701. doi:10.1029/2012gl053240


Helm, K.P., N.L. Bindoff and J.A. Church (2011). Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38(23), L23602, doi:10.1029/2011GL049513.

Church, J.A., J.M. Gregory, N.J. White, S.M. Platten and J.X. Mitrovica (2011). Understanding and projecting sea level change. Oceanography 24(2):130-143, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2011.33.

Katsman, C.A., A. Sterl, J.J. Beersma, H.W. van den Brink, J.A. Church, W. Hazeleger, R.E. Kopp, D. Kroon, J. Kwadijk, R. Lammersen, J. Lowe, M. Oppenheimer, H.-P. Plag, J. Ridley, H. von Storch, D.G. Vaughan, P. Vellinga, L.L.A. Vermeersen, R.S.W. van de Wal and R. Weisse,(2011). Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta - the Netherlands as an example. Climatic Change, 109(3), 617-645. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

Hoeke, R., C. Storlazzi, and P. Ridd (2011), Hydrodynamics of a bathymetrically complex fringing coral reef embayment: Wave climate, in situ observations, and wave prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 116, C04018, doi:10.1029/2010JC006170.

Hoeke, R.K., P.L. Jokiel, R.W. Buddemeier and R.E. Brainard (2011), Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years. PLoS ONE, 6(3), e18038. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0018038.

McInnes, K.L., J.G. O'Grady, K.J.E. Walsh and F. Colberg (2011), Progress towards quantifying storm surge risk in Fiji due to climate variability and change. J. Coastal Res., SI64, 1121-1124. link.

Church, J.A., N.J. White, L.F. Konikow, C.M. Domingues, J.G. Cogley, E. Rignot, J.M. Gregory, M.R. van den Broeke, A.J. Monaghan and I. Velicogna (2011), Revisiting the Earth's sea level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L18601, doi:10.1029/2011GL048794
CLICK HERE to download.

Watson, C., N. White, J. Church, R. Burgette, P. Tregoning and R. Coleman (2011), Absolute Calibration in Bass Strait, Australia: TOPEX, Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2. Marine Geodesy, 34, 242-260, doi:10.1080/01490419.2011.584834

Barker, P.M., J.R. Dunn, C.M. Domingues and S.E. Wijffels (2011), Pressure Sensor Drifts in Argo and Their Impacts. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceaninc Technology, 28, 1036-1049, doi:10.1175/2011JTECHO831.1

McInnes, K.L., T.A. Erwin and J.M. Bathols (2011), Global Climate Model projected changes in 10 m wind due to anthropogenic climate change. Atmos. Sci. Letters, 12, 325-333, doi: 10.1002/asl.341.

Church, J. A. and N.J. White (2011), Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st Century. Surveys in Geophysics, 32, 585-602, doi:10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1
CLICK HERE to download the pdf file.

Deng, X, D.A. Griffin, K. Ridgway, J.A. Church, W.E. Featherstone, N. White and M. Cahill (2010), Chapter 18: Satellite altimetry for geodetic, oceanographic and climate studies in the Australian region, in: S. Vignudelli, A. Kostianoy, P. Cipollini and J. Benveniste (eds.), Coastal Altimetry, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010 (ISBN: 978-3-642-12795-3, e-ISBN: 978-3-642-12796-0; DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-12796-0_18).


Hemer, M. A., Church, J. A. and Hunter, J. R. (2010), Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere. Int. J. Climatol., 30: 475–491. doi: 10.1002/joc.1900

Hemer, M.A., X. L. Wang, J. A. Church, and V. R. Swail, 2010: MODELING PROPOSAL: Coordinating Global Ocean Wave Climate Projections. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 451–454.

Church, J.A. (2010), The Changing Oceans. Science, Vol. 328 no. 5985 p. 1453. doi:

Helm, K. P., N. L. Bindoff, and J. A. Church (2010), Changes in the global hydrological-cycle inferred from ocean salinity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18701, doi:10.1029/2010GL044222.

Shapiro, Melvyn, Jagadish Shukla, Gilbert Brunet, Carlos Nobre, Michel Béland, Randall Dole, Kevin Trenberth, Richard Anthes, Ghassem Asrar, Leonard Barrie, Philippe Bougeault, Guy Brasseur, David Burridge, Antonio Busalacchi, Jim Caughey, Deliang Chen, John Church, Takeshi Enomoto, Brian Hoskins, Øystein Hov, Arlene Laing, Hervé Le Treut, Jochem Marotzke, Gordon McBean, Gerald Meehl, Martin Miller, Brian Mills, John Mitchell, Mitchell Moncrieff, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Haraldur Olafsson, Tim Palmer, David Parsons, David Rogers, Adrian Simmons, Alberto Troccoli, Zoltan Toth, Louis Uccellini, Christopher Velden, and John M. Wallace, 2010: An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1377–1388.


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