Hobart

Seminar Abstract

Monday 11 May 2009, 11.30am (Tas time)
CSIRO Auditorium, Hobart

Economic impacts and spatial planning for climate adaptation research

Ana Norman
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Cleveland

Using Input-Output analysis to estimate the contribution of fisheries to the economy

Marine ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Physical and biological studies predict changes in the abundance and distribution of commercially targeted marine species and in the locations of sites suitable for aquaculture production. Whilst these changes will directly impact wild fishers and aquaculturists the effects will also be felt by; sectors of the economy that supply inputs (e.g., fuel, equipment and insurance); sectors that form part of the fisheries supply chain (transport, processors, retailers, etc); and the end consumers. Our study uses an input-output framework to estimate the potential net economic impacts of climate change on the abundance and distribution of Australian wild and farmed fisheries and consider the consequences of alternative adaptive strategies. These include changes in the level of fishing effort, the location of vessels, and the location of fish farms following a range of possible changes in the abundance and distribution of the fisheries. Our results allow the implications of these strategies to be evaluated from the perspectives of individual fishing fleets and other sectors of the economy.

and

Franz Smith
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Cleveland

Spatial management for a changing ocean

Although most frameworks for Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) recognise the need to consider the vulnerability of habitats and species to changes in global climate, there has been little explicit incorporation of aspects of climate change forecasting into the SCP processes. This is partly due to the broad range of conditions produced by climate change forecasts and uncertainties in ecological responses to future changing environmental conditions. This project sets out to develop a framework by which model outputs of climate change forecasting and socioecological information can be incorporated into an analytical SCP process for MPA network design, monitoring, and evaluation. As there are a range of forecasts for climate change and differing levels of uncertainty associated with ecosystem responses across the spectrum of biological organisation, functioning, and potential management responses, the approach for this project is to use a combination of qualitative and quantitative models. These models will input data from geochemical/physical ocean-climatic models to assess consequences for species and resource distributions and biological interactions. Spatially explicit outputs from these models can then be used to inform ongoing systematic conservation planning objectives and integrate them into an adaptive management cycle. This project aims to test this framework on local and regional scales to evaluate the performance of alternative MPA networks to deliver on stated biodiversity goals and the viability of associated industries for a range of climatic change scenarios. This presentation provides an outline of the conceptual approach, analytical tools, and examples of how differences in the relative importance of physical and biological forcing can be used to inform MPA network design.

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Location:
CSIRO = Marine Laboratories Auditorium, Castray Esplanade, Hobart

For further information, or to schedule a seminar, contact:
To schedule a seminar, contact:
Clothilde Langlais, (Oceanographic seminars) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (03) 6232 5399
Natalie Kelly, (Biology/Modelling seminars) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 0438 452 483
Jillian Enraght-Moony, (seminar administrator) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (03) 6232 5320
Communications Manager, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC (03) 6226 2265
Margaret Hazelwood, Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies (IASOS) University of Tasmania (03) 6226 2971

Last updated 21/07/09