Hobart

Seminar Abstract

Tuesday 11 December 2007, 11.30am (Tas time)
CSIRO Auditorium, Hobart

Mark Baird
School of Mathematics and Statistics
University of NSW

A size-resolved pelagic ecosystem model: sensitivity to initial conditions

A pelagic ecosystem model is developed that resolves size-classes of phytoplankton, protozoans and metazoans. The model contains 75 biological state variables (17 size-classes of phytoplankton; 13 of protozoans; and 45 of metazoans). Numerical experiments are undertaken with perturbed initial conditions, and the divergence of trajectories analysed using Lyapunov exponents (a non-linear mathematicians favourite tool) and ensemble spread (that meteorologists prefer). The two approaches tell the same story, and reveal a sensitivity to infinitesimally small differences in initial conditions - placing inherent limits on predictability. The results of numerical experiments are used to estimate these limits for practical applications.

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Location:
CSIRO = Marine Laboratories Auditorium, Castray Esplanade, Hobart

For further information, or to schedule a seminar, contact:
To schedule a seminar, contact:
Bernadette Sloyan, (Oceanographic seminars) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (03) 6232 5152
Thomas Kunz, (Biological seminars) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
(03) 6232 5076
Natalie Dowling, (Fisheries Modelling) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
(03) 6232 5148
Jillian Enraght-Moony, (seminar administrator) CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (03) 6232 5456
Sandra Zicus, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC (03) 6226 7888
Margaret Hazelwood, Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies (IASOS) University of Tasmania (03) 6226 2971

Last updated 21/12/07