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CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Past Seminars

Seminar Abstract

Getting warmer: searching for realistic models of climate-driven changes in population abundance and distribution

Rocky shore biota around Britain and Ireland have been extensively studied and surveyed over the past century. A combination of northern latitude and mild temperatures allow both northern (cold water) species and southern (warm water) species to coexist. This provides an excellent baseline for detection of change and a convenient test bed for development and testing of models of responses to change. Firstly, long term barnacle abundance datasets were used to produce population models to test if climate influences each species directly or if climatic influence on a species is mediated by the presence of a dominant competitor. Secondly, as part of the MarClim programme (Marine Biodiversity and Climate Change) models were developed that predict likely changes in UK distributions of >50 rocky shore species over the next 80yrs. Species distributions across the survey site network were simulated using the statistical relationships for both present day temperatures and for predicted temperatures from Hadley Centre models for different emissions scenarios.

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CSIRO = Marine Laboratories Auditorium, Castray Esplanade, Hobart

For further information, or to schedule a seminar, contact:
Peter Oke, (Oceanographic seminars) CSIRO Marine Research (03) 6232 5387
Piers Dunstan, (Biological seminars) CSIRO Marine Research (03) 6232 5382
Katrina Nitschke, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC (03) 6226 2265 & IASOS, University of Tasmania (03) 6226 2509