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CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Past Seminars

Seminar Abstract

An exploratory analysis of rainfall declines in three regions of southern Australia

Growing evidence of global warming is adding to speculation about the timing and impact of projected climate change on Australia’s natural resources and climate-dependent industries. This speculation is becoming rife due to emerging evidence of sustained rainfall declines across several parts of southern Australia.

We use examples drawn from southwest Western Australia, the Mt Lofty region of South Australia and the Murrumbidgee River Basin to identify and characterise the changes in atmospheric circulation responsible for the observed rainfall shifts and trends. This is achieved through the application of a stochastic downscaling model that relates point-scale rainfall at multiple sites to large-scale atmospheric circulation variables.

The analysis leads to the identification of a finite set of characteristic spatial rainfall occurrence patterns. Their frequency characteristics are then examined for the detection of trends and shifts. Overall, our results indicate that changes in rainfall regimes have or appear to be taking place and that this is a subject worthy of more detailed study.

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CSIRO = Marine Laboratories Auditorium, Castray Esplanade, Hobart

For further information, or to schedule a seminar, contact:
Peter Oke, (Oceanographic seminars) CSIRO Marine Research (03) 6232 5387
Keith Hayes, (Biological seminars) CSIRO Marine Research (03) 6232 5298
Katrina Nitschke, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC (03) 6226 2265 & IASOS, University of Tasmania (03) 6226 2509