CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Past Seminars

Friday 31 October 2003, 11.30am (Tas time)

CSIRO Auditorium, Hobart and via videoconference to Floreat and Cleveland

David M. Lodge
Department of Biological Sciences,
University of Notre Dame, Indiana, USA

Ecological forecasting and bio-economic risk analysis of invasive species

In many terrestrial, marine, and freshwater habitats, non-indigenous species have changed biodiversity and ecosystem function more than any other human impact. Drawing especially on the history of invasions in the North American Great Lakes, I will illustrate recent progress in forecasting invasions and integrating economic information into risk analysis for invasive species. In the Great Lakes, many fish species have been introduced intentionally and continue to have a strong human constituency, but far more fish and other species are introduced unintentionally and are universally disliked. For both intentional and unintentional introductions, however, even rudimentary risk analyses have been rare, and prevention of unwanted species practically nonexistent. Instead, society has largely reacted to new species—rarely with successful but costly control efforts (e.g. sea lamprey), and more commonly with resignation even in the face of substantial ecological and economic costs. Such passivity is unnecessary, and we advocate risk analyses that combine ecology and economics. Such analyses—based on recent advances in ecological and economic forecasting—provide guidance for choices among alternative prevention and control strategies. Examples include forecasts of which fishes from the Ponto-Caspian basin are most likely to establish, spread, and have undesirable impacts in the Great Lakes; and forecasts of the economic value of preventing the continuing spread of zebra mussels. Such risk analyses strongly suggest that more societal investment in risk analyses and prevention will pay ecological and economic dividends.

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