CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Past Seminars

ENSO HINDCAST RESULTS FROM THE HAMBURG COUPLED MODEL AND FROM THE DEMETER SUPER ENSEMBLE

ENSO simulation and hindcasts results of the MPI-OM1/ECHAM5 coupled model, the latest version of the Max-Planck-Institute's climate model, are presented. These include results from a 600 year control run of the climate model, showing that the model has quite realistic ENSO variability, and results from 6-month (9 ensemble member) hindcast experiments for the period 1969 to 2001. Hindcasts are initialised using a simple "coupled assimilation" scheme, in which the model is run in coupled mode with SST strongly damped to the observed SST prior to the hindcast. Although only SST data is used, the analysis scheme (through including air-sea interaction) is able to accurately simulate the observed tropical Pacific heat content variability. The model is able to capture all the major ENSO events of the period, with an ensemble-mean anomaly correlation skill for Nino3 SST of 0.7 at six months lead.

This work is being performed under Demeter, an EU project to implement, test, and evaluate the performance of a super-ensemble of ENSO climate models. This project involves six European climate models, the output of which is to be used in crop and health models to access the economic benefits of the Demeter system. Results are clearly indicating the superiority of a multi-model approach, and shall be discussed.