CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Past Seminars

Integration of science and socio-economic systems.

I have spent the last (nearly) twenty years working for CSIRO in the general area of natural resource management (NRM) and I have witnessed, and participated in, a period of massive change. Two changes have gone hand in hand: first, a change in philosophy, epistemology and science; and second, a change in society itself. Both changes have driven a need to comprehend and deal with increased complexity.

In science the concept and theory of complex adaptive systems (CAS) has emerged – linking the actions of individual agents to the emergent properties of entire systems. CAS theories link the statistical properties of systems (including power laws linking the frequency and magnitude of events, like “landslides” in sand piles) to network structures, and the emergence of some surprising properties of CAS including fractal variability and hysteresis effects (“tipping points” and points of no return). These ideas are beginning to inform the science of ecology and the study of ecosystems, as well as many other disciplines – but are, as yet, poorly appreciated in NRM. When fully developed such ideas have important things to say about what we can know about the natural world, what data we might collect and what might be predictable. Ideas from complex systems place some fundamental constraints on how we might manage ecosystems (and other things) and what the best social, economic and institutional responses might be.

If the ideas from CAS are fully adopted and ecosystems are regarded as CAS (and the data clearly indicate that they should be) then there are some striking implications for ecological sampling techniques, statistical treatment of data, change detection (ANOVA etc) and modelling. Much “noise” in ecological data isn’t noise if looked at in the right way. In a fractal world of CAS behaviour, particular small events – many of which have fundamentally indeterminate causes – have major, long term, large scale emergent implications. Frequentist statistical approaches (the laws of large numbers) and deterministic dynamical simulation modelling techniques may be unsafe in a world of CAS.

With the revolution in global communications, the internet, mobile phones and economic rationalism coupled with subsidiarity (the “pushing down” of decision making to local and regional communities) the social and economic world has become equally complex. Globalisation and the competitive status of nations are critical for our future as a prosperous, democratic society. At the same time we have begun to realise the magnitude of the environmental damage that has been done to the planet and the requirement for restoration in areas like, water, climate change and biodiversity. If environmental science is going to make a difference it will have to do so in a pretty complex world.

Ideas from CAS theory are also applicable to social and economic systems – particularly in the context of sustainability and the “triple bottom line” – and especially to the coupling between the natural and socio-economic spheres. Standard social and economic theories are as much at risk as standard ecological theories. In a world of massive social and environmental change it is important that we fully understand the limitations on our knowledge and actions, and adjust our collective behaviour accordingly. Risk management, adaptive institutions and more fluid policy development will be required as our conceptual framework evolves. Sclerotic institutions and jurisdictions are the most significant barrier to environmental restoration and adaptive policy development.

There is an urgent need to “lift the level of the debate”, to get away from narrow sectoral interests and prescriptions, and to begin to seek system level solutions encompassing fluid and adaptive management techniques. Above all, perhaps, there is an urgent need for education, consultation and empowerment of communities at the regional level. The world’s best market-oriented solutions (e.g. water) are of no avail if no-one is able to use the market instruments and incentives in sophisticated ways.

Taken as a whole these ideas are also applicable to institutions such as CSIRO where the generation of knowledge is now expected to achieve outcomes in terms of value generation and policy impact. Science is expected to contribute to the solution of many of these major national challenges but all institutions exist in a world of great uncertainty and are undergoing great change themselves. Personal security and comfort are equally at risk. Adaptation strategies are necessary in a world of global competition, institutional “landslides” and uncertainty. Competitors are suddenly becoming collaborators, and economic efficiency is driving institutional reform; mergers and acquisitions are being mooted.

This seminar will begin with some new evidence of CAS behaviour in aquatic ecosystems (real data!) and go on to speculate what the impact of these ideas might be on research strategies and personal and institutional responses at the dawn of the 21^st century.