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The most well known outbreaks of white syndromes in Australia occurred in the southern and northern Great Barrier Reef in 2002. Calculations of the rate at which heat stress accumulated during the summer months of 2002 have shown that the ‘heating rates’ were far higher at outbreak sites than at most other sites in NE Australia. All sites where outbreaks were observed experienced heating rates greater than 0.3 – an average accumulation of 0.3 degree heating days [number of degrees above long-term (1991 to 2002) average temperature plus standard deviation] every day during the summer months (December to February). For each of the last 8 summers, heating rates have been calculated for northern Australia using remotely sensed data from satellites at ~1 km resolution and maps of outbreak risk produced. Sites that experienced similar heating rates (0.3 and above) to those which caused the 2002 outbreaks are coloured red. The model predicted the white syndrome outbreaks that occurred in late 2007 at the Rowley Shoals in Western Australia and predictions based on this last summer’s temperatures suggest that outbreaks could occur north and north-east of Cairns as well as to the Swain reefs in the southern Great Barrier Reef.
This project was lead by researchers from the Australian Research Council's Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and completed in collaboration with researchers from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, and NOAA Coral Reef Watch (Maynard et al. in review)
These images of white syndrome outbreak likelihood form the basis of an early warning system currently being developed as part of a coral disease outbreak response plan, under development by the Climate Change Group at the GBRMPA. The GBRMPA co-funded this work through the Marine and Tropical Sciences Research Facility and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre.
To view images of white syndrome outbreak likelihood through Google Earth, click here.
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The thumbnails below show locations where white syndrome outbreak likelihood (in red) was high from the years 2002 to 2009. Click on the thumbnail to see a larger version of the image.
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