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RELATED INFORMATION:ARTICLES
DEVELOPING A PREDICTIVE OCEAN ATMOSPHERE MODEL
FOR AUSTRALIA
Researchers have begun testing a long-term climate
prediction system – one which is suitable for Australia’s
unique climate characteristics – after successfully simulating
conditions in the Indian Ocean, the largest source of rainfall
for Western and Southern Australia.
The Predictive
Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) is a state-of-the-art
seasonal to inter-annual forecast system based on a coupled
ocean/atmosphere model.
By using information obtained from special ocean
monitors and combining it with sophisticated computer modelling
of the oceans and atmosphere, researchers are working to improve
both the accuracy and lead time of climate predictions –
with the aim of being able to predict rainfall three to 12
months ahead for the whole of Australia.
According to project leader Dr Gary Meyers,
the new research will overcome some of the weaknesses currently
associated with longer term climate variability forecasting,
especially limitations faced in southern and western Australia
where the El Nino 'signal' is not so strong.
Dr Meyers said a coupled model of the global
ocean and atmosphere which regularly receives field information
from ocean and atmospheric monitors – and which also
acknowledges the unique characteristics of Australian climate
– offer the best opportunity to improve climate predictions.
"We’re learning that ocean currents
and other ocean features play a role which implies a degree
of predictability," Dr Meyers said. "This research
has generated tremendous advances in the understanding of
how we can harness this knowledge of ocean behaviour and its
interraction with the atmosphere and then transfer that knowledge
to a climate prediction system."
The project has not only broadened the understanding
of how sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean influence
the climate of southern and western Australia, it has enhanced
the understanding of links to the El Ni¤ o-Southern
Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean and contributed
to the identification of the so-called Indian Ocean 'cold
spot' in 1994, and an even larger version of this ocean feature
in 1997.
Dr Meyers said the climate prediction system
was developed with special attention to the accurate simulation
of the temperatures of the tropical oceans in Australia's
north, as well as the eastern Indian Ocean. This region is
thought to be extremely important in modulating Australia's
rainfall pattern.
The model also accurately simulates the Pacific
to Indian Ocean (Indonesian) throughflow, a system of currents
that transports very warm water to the Indian Ocean. Importantly,
it is also the first model that includes the effect of tidal
mixing in seas off the northwest coast of Australia.
The project will provide Australia’s primary
producers and rural industry with a more refined guide to
seasonal rainfall, as well as give regional forecasters at
the National Climate Centre (NCC), Melbourne a broader base
of operational information.
Research products including improved understanding
and preliminary results from climate prediction systems are
presented at monthly general outlook meetings now. The tested
climate prediction will be available to the NCC at the end
of the project.
POAMA was developed in a joint project involving
the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) and CSIRO
Marine and Atmospheric Research, with support provided by the Climate Variability
in Agriculture Program (CVAP), a consortium of rural research
and development corporations managed by Land and Water Australia.
The core of the research has been carried out by scientists
from the Marine and Ocean Forecasting Group at BMRC and scientist
from the Oceans and Climate Group at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
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